I will try to make this as simple as possible because I made this specially for my friends and family. First of all I am a stock, futures and options trader, not a Crypto Trader.
Once BTC will start trading it's futures, it will be trading at a very different dynamics unlike it is trading right now. BTC will be treated as big dogs such as Oil, Gold, Silver, and other Commodities. "A futures contract is a legal agreement, generally made on the trading floor of a futures exchange, to buy or sell a particular commodity or financial instrument at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future." (Investopedia).
Why it will crash?
Fundamentals: 1.Big Holders of Bitcoin will book their profit because once there is future contracts out in the market, they do not know what will happen to their investments. Pros will be watching its every single price movement. This will create huge volatile. With all those profits and free money, it is only rational to be safe than to be sorry. 2.When Big Holders sell their millions of bitcoins at 20X or even 200X leverage, supply of the bitcoin will surpass demand as it is a limited resource. Who knows there might be that one guys sitting on a million bitcoin decide to sell all at once, and we all know what happens when 100K bitcoin is sold at once. 3. The price is speculative at the moment, it will be treated as legit commodity from now on. Yes the price will recover because there are many investors who are waiting for this moment to dive in but are looking for a correction. Don't forget the short sellers who really want this to go low so that they can sit on a bag load of bitcoin.
Technical: 1.Long term Elliot wave 5 correction is the worse. Surprisingly bitcoin also follows the Elliot waves theory. Since this is targeted at common people, here is the basic theory. *Wave 2 cannot be longer in price than wave 1, and it must not go beyond the origin of wave 1. *Wave 3 is never the shortest when compared to waves 1 and 5 (Price or Percentage wise). *Wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1 *As a guideline the third wave shows the greatest momentum, except when the fifth is the extended wave. *Wave 5 must exceed the end of wave 3. *As a guideline the internal wave structure should show alternation, which means different kind of corrective structures in wave 2 and 4. This chart fulfills all these criteria
2.Previous correction and the corrections before started at the same fib level, what a coincidence, since the same fib 1.68 will be the next resistant according to the wave movement. (Yes the wave 5 will be simmilar magnitude to wave 1)
What Next? 1. Expect ETH/BTC to go up. 2. Expect Other Cryptos to gain value. 3. Waite for the bitcoin to go down before filling your wallet with this valuable comodity
If the long term wave 5 surpasses wave three, This technical analysis would be invalid. But what are the chance of millions of people not getting spooked by technical and the fundamentals? I am just giving my perspective on this, the decision is yours!
Hope this helps, I am a dutch, its hard for me to clarify in English. But I hope you all got the jist! dank je!
코멘트
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Crypto community is strong lol!
코멘트
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If you do not like my analysis and thoughts, please just ignore this post and walk away. No need to make the comment section toxic. If you are looking for arguments, please go find a debate site.
If you have questions related to my analysis, feel free to ask me in the comment section and I will be happy to respond.
코멘트
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BTC doing opposite secondary ABC Correction next major waves might be negative 12345. I am optimistic about it hitting 13500 with C wave first. Be careful! The first, retracement will fall 10K. The second will drag it down to 8000K and third will most likely take it down to 6K. 6 K might trigger a panic sell!
코멘트
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코멘트
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This was my analysis before the waves started, so far accurate.
I am no expert on cryptos, however, this pattern comes before every single major crash!
코멘트
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13500 still remains the danger zone for now!
코멘트
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I will sell here to avoid risk $13.300, will get back it if it decides to go over $14.500.
For those who are concern about bitcoin just being a made-up value, please remember money and company's valuation is a made up value too. Value increases as demand grows since now it's going to be seen as a commodity, demand for bitcoin will keep on growing. Expect exponential growth in the future.
If it doesn't crash at the level shown above, it will reach 18K in no time.
Most people are stupid, funny thing is, lot of them took huge profits from holding bitcoin.
they believe the feast will last forever.
They will take your advise as an insult.
UnknownUnicorn1020621
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@Julian-sands, Well I don't blame them, I was the same during the dot-com era. Everyone learns from their own mistake.
UnknownUnicorn1020621
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@Julian-sands, 2K next :D Thanks for your support when everyone was hating :)
BitcoinLover
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I like your analysis. I´m Dutch too. Explanation is fine. Mooie dag :-) Ik ga je volgen....
cupofjoe42
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Thanks for posting. Keep up the hard work.
DomyMontana
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I like your analysis, very good explained and technicaly explained but i dont get what can happen otherwise it goes up to 500.000 as John McAfee said. :)
Do you think alts will also fall because people take profits or maybe exchanges will make trading pairs without bitcoin involved? Sell all alts or wait until more people get in?
Futures i think are very risky for all because with leverage they can easy buy of the whole orderbook on all exchanges or isnt this possible?
Trendwise 500.000 or even a million is very possible. For that to happen, there needs to be consolidation.
I don't know if this is true for alt but generally in forex, if a demand of primary option decreases, the demand for secondary option picks up so I think ETH/BTC will go up, LTC/BTC will go up, anything that has a BTC quote should go up. At the same time, anything with USD quote should go down, eg. LTC/USD, ETH/USD etc..
I think more people will get in after the correction takes place and the value of BTC will be 100K in 2-3 month. People aren't interested on other coins as they are interested in BTC.
Keep in mind this is only the technical analysis and my opinion, I don't know for sure that it will crash. If I was trading this like a stock I would put a stop loss at 10.000. Since I am holding a few, I simply placed the sell order at 13.500 if it executes I will look for a concrete support at a lower price and a little rise before getting back in. If it somehow passes 14.500 I would get back in because the next target is at 18.400.
We will see what will happen.
DomyMontana
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@Avasreader, Thank you very much for your opinion, helps me a lot, since i am doing this only some months now and have no experience in other markets. I only know history repeats always...
nice greetings from Austria :)
UnknownUnicorn1020621
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@DomyMontana, There you go I think 18.5K is the resistance for now... I think it will retrace back to 10K then go to 25K+. PT 100,000K in a month. Be careful with it.
yvofox
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If it ain't dutch, it win't much!
Mooie chart, aannemelijk verhaal!
they believe the feast will last forever.
They will take your advise as an insult.