When it heads up to the top of a channel like that in a big swoop then stalls out the most logical thing in a bear market is to expect a bart. People are getting all frothy about it shooting to the moon from here but I am not buying it.
I am not actively shorting it yet but I am lightening up a little on the long term long positions I accumulated at lower prices because I expect the market is going to give plenty of chances to buy back in much lower.
I still think 5800 is a very reasonable scale in zone and given the uncertainties in the world as a whole it's also possible for it to test into the 4k area again. I don't really think it's going below the floor which stock-to-flow put in at 3800 but it's also not totally impossible.
My overall plan is still the same, to spend the entire summer building a long term position for when the bull market finally returns, and the key to that is to not chase fakeout-style price action like this.
Oil is still heading south which is a strong indicator to me that the economy is not out of the woods. That means the crypto market still has lots of time to shake people out and I would rather be buying the bottoms of the shakeouts than be the one getting shaken out.
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OBV has not shown a bart divergence yet but I'll be watching it and if it starts to curl downward I might trade this actively short as a scalp.
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Per suggestion from allegorycave, I have a small scalp short, risk is defined by upside swing but would probably manage out of it if it starts to threaten it. This appears to have good momo to downside so may be able to trade it to the lower side of the channel in on swipe.
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Quite a strong bearish divergence on fisher transform
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Trading starting to work somewhat although it is having problems getting through today's open
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Feeling like this trade makes more sense to short the bart with a stop limit below the range, so am looking to manage my way out of the current short and then get in again on a break below.
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Got out of current short at break even, watching for entry on break below range
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Using shape of last bart it looks like this one is coming close to its end