I looked at the logarithmic chart and saw: a global uptrend channel, the upper line of which we tested and did not breakout. Bitcoin at the threshold of a new big cycle, which is a little over a year long. After that, Bitcoin made a dropped by 50% from the peak and reached the previous correction's support level. Now BTC has rebounded and is trading at 25% from the local low.
The current local resistance level is 41k.
The long-term magnet is the middle line of the ascending channel and the peak of 2018 (the 20k level, maybe lower). It is important to note that this is a global vision, not a short-term one. To my mind, speaking about short-term perspective, there will be a rebound to be sure after such a fall.
I understand that there are many newcomers on the market now. The last fall was a shock for the majority of traders. I want to give a little advice (read below).
1. Calculate your future compulsory expenses for the next 6 months minimum.
2. Compare them with the available one the amount in stablecoins and cash.
3. If there is no pillow in stable assets for at least 6 months falling market then cover the part on rollbacks up positions to form a pillow for expenses for at least 6 months.
4. If there is, then all the same sort out portfolio and sell on rollbacks up those assets, in fundamental, values and survivability on potential bear market which you doubt very much.
Summary:
Your risky part of a cryptocurrency portfolio should consist only of fundamental assets with a high probability of gaining a network effect.
You have enough money for at least 6 months. You are not motivated to sell assets at the bottom. We are ready to sit out any drawdown. You should understand that sooner or later your assets will cost more.
You can safely continue living a normal life without checking the charts every few minutes. You realize that no matter what happens - you have the money for a good life and a portfolio of quality assets for financial independence.
I do not want to give you false hope. Trading is not easy and risky. A trader earns big money when trading in the main trend direction. I expect a flat movement on the market shortly. This is the time when most people are losing money.
@EXCAVO Thanks for the analysis. If I do the same analysis on ETH log chart it shows clear upside to 20K, can you please share your thoughts on that?
BCN_Trader
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@EXCAVO So, just to boil this down to a sentence and clarify, looking at this post and your other recent post you are suggesting a possible short term increase in price to the 41-43k level, followed by a drop and possible test of the 20k level, then followed by some drawn-out sideways action before resuming a most sustained uptrend. Is that about right? Thanks BTW as always for sharing your analysis, as with many others here I appreciate it.
momo034
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@BCN_Trader, Haha, I see you just copied and pasted the comment that I left in his other post. Anyways fine by me, guess it shows Im not the only one looking for this clarification.
@EXCAVO, Thank you! Crystal clear! I think there is a fine possibility it plays out much like that. But my guess is it doesnt make the short squeeze breakout. It will be a doubt top and then down to test the lows
BTCINVESTING
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hopefully we go not that low. i m still bullish. vma200 is a strong support. let see. thx for sharing. here is my current view...
pablito1986z
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thank a lot for sharing
smallestgiantgainners
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calm sharp ful of beaty,thank you sir
DeFontain
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Interesting, thank you for sharing it with us mortals :)
stellarcollision
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You provide great input, sir. Appreciated, indeed.