in my estimation, the most likely outcome for bitcoin short term is a crash leading up to OR after the halving (too much built up hype--reflected by bearish technicals), but the price should revert to the stock-to-flow pricing model afterwards within +-2 SD (i.e. 95% confidence)
mid to long term, bitcoin is looking extremely bullish. there's simply no reason to be bearish, the current economic situation is the perfect storm and the expected returns for bitcoin are unmatched by any other asset class. i'd recommend not trying to time the market and continuing to regularly buy to get an average cost-basis (DCA).