Hi traders! I hope everyone is having a great week and enjoying your crypto profits after huge gains on most of all the major coins! So Ellen came out yesterday and tried to explain what Bitcoin is to millions of viewers on national TV. The first thing that came to my mind is when I saw the video is, are we ready to enter the Maina Phase? Seems like it.
So what is the Mania Phase? Media attention marks the end of the Awareness phase and the beginning of the Mania phase. The media attention will attract a lot of attention from everyday Joes wanting to invest. With media attention comes a lot of speculation, good and bad. And as media attention attracts enthused buyers, the price will go up. Everyone is noticing that prices are going up and the public jumps in for this "investment opportunity of a lifetime". The expectations about future appreciation becomes a "no brainer" and a linear inference mentality sets in; future prices are an extrapolation of past price appreciation, which of course goes against any conventional wisdom. This phase is however not about logic, but a lot about psychology. Floods of money come in creating even greater expectations and pushing prices to stratospheric levels. The higher the price, the more investments pour in. Fairly unnoticed from the general public caught in this new frenzy, the smart money as well as many institutional investors are quietly pulling out and selling their assets. Unbiased opinion about the fundamentals becomes increasingly difficult to find as many players are heavily invested and have every interest to keep asset inflation going. The market gradually becomes more exuberant as "paper fortunes" are made from regular "investors" and greed sets in. Everyone tries to jump in and new intrants have absolutely no understanding of the market, its dynamic and fundamentals. Prices are simply bid up with all financial means possible, particularly leverage and debt. If the bubble is linked with lax sources of credit, then it will endure far longer than many observers would expect, therefore discrediting many rational assessments that the situation is unsustainable. At some point statements are made about entirely new fundamentals implying that a "permanent high plateau" has been reached to justify future price increases; the bubble is about to collapse.
Initial Chart Author: Jean-Paul Rodrigue Maina Definition Source: Hofstra University
Regards, Abdulla
코멘트
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For the cute comments below who said Ellen talking about Bitcoin is no big news, please do your research. Even CNBC reported it lol.
코멘트
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Again, just to make things clear - the above chart is theory work and does not mean Bitcoin will reach 50K,100K, etc.
Everyone is trying to guess which phase of this cycle we are in. I can tell you no one knows what part of the hype cycle we are in -- including me. What I do know is that more than 10 million users are using Coinbase and we haven't even reached a $1 Trillion marketcap... so we have a long way to go before this market will pop.
whoisthelorax
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@ExcitingTechnology, that is scary because Coinbase has been taking people's money from their bank accounts
3/4 of the people that watch Ellen don't even know how to use a computer. This news is NO news!
serhan
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Bitcoin made more than 20.000 times of its original value and you think this wasn’t mania enough? :)
seananetsberger
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@serhan, its not hard to gain 20,000 time a value at one point because everything starts out having 0 value.
serhan
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@seananetsberger, of course not. Company stock valuations never starts with a value of 0. Not even cryptocurrencies start with 0. There is a large impactful difference between 0 and 1 which defines a range between nothingness to infinity. Counting starts from a value of 1 and I counted the value from 1 for the case of bitcoin value.
seananetsberger
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@serhan, didnt mean zero literally. I meant 0.01 then. ok?
dreamsdyeyoung
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I'm honestly tired to see this at least once a week lol