아직은 서플라이의 흔적. SoS 의 부재. Closed all margin long . holding only spots from 29k.
waiting for Price action to be more clear.
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following purple path.
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and little adjust, don't see a SoS. we will have a slight pull back towards demand. expect it to hit 32k ish.
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its time for great bear trap setup P
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No altcoins yet for me, its time for the KING
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Last Point Of Support (LPS): Should have a LACK OF SUPPLY indicated by a RELATIVE NARROWING of the SPREAD and a DECREASE IN THE VOLUME. The comparison is between the up move constituting the (SOS) and the REACTION FOLLOWING it, the (LPS). See the Back-up to the Edge of the Creek (BEC). What if the stock has a possible (SOS) indicated by a widening spread and increasing volume on the move up and is then followed by good supply on possible (LPS) indicated by wide spread and high volume on the reaction? This CANCELS the probability of the fist action being a (SOS) and the stock will probably continue in the trading range for additional testing.
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검은 원 = LOCAL SOS 파란색 원 = LPS
볼륨은 줄어들지 않고 있으며 시장에는 여전히 서플라이의 흔적.
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but i bet this is new base for next leg up = LPS (last point of support) Don't see a proof of "distribution" supply absorbing near local support.
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mean reversion :
spot cvd being the lower, more sells on futs.
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i love trap trap ~ and bear is in trouble ~
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invalidation is clear. and i still think this is liquidity sweep , get more short in the market then squeeze up .
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LONG AND STRONG
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We could still sweep the support, but still.. don't see a distribution here.
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If the price of a bottom 2 is higher than the price of bottom 1, it’s a higher low and a convincing bounce. If the prices are the same, it’s still a W-bottom but somewhat weaker. If the bottom 2 is lower, it might not be the final bottom yet. With bbands you will look for the 3-push and W-bottom structures relative to the bbands:
If the bottom 2 has lower price than bottom 1 but is farther up from the lower bband than bottom 1, it’s a strongly convincing bottom. The edge lies in the fact that it’s a higher low relatively to the bbands, a bullish structure that a lot of traders will miss.
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not confirmed yet, this bigger tf bounce is higher than last low ( bb band 1) ? what confirms
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see the volume profile.
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ETH
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*wyckoff perspective
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there you go. 아주 적당한 타이밍에 새로운 테더 발행 :) SoS 로 쓰일 총알?
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the market cycle ?
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stopped out in margin long, just holding spot. but i still think this goes up. will scale in margin long gain.
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scaled in margin long
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spring or test of previous spring
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stopped out margin long holding spots for now
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Supply 가 시장에 확인. 빨간 박스에서 supply 가 다시 absorption 되는지 확인
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buy back strong after sell down = SoS :)
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consolidate , absorb more supply (or could just fly)
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지난 저점에서 볼륨 확인후 재차 상승하는 경우의 Long entry. 하지만 현재도 서플라이가 줄어들지 않고 있는 흔적. 급하게 롱을 열기에는 high risk.
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do not long the resistance there is weird supply keep showing up in small tf. sold spot, open hedge short on ETH at 1344
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RED ALERT RED ALERT
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market seems very imbalance now. selling 70% of my spots too. be careful, you can buy back anytime when you see confirmation. but this volume action is not what i was waiting for to confirm breakout.
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we can sure see red path too. but i don't like this volume action here. 조심 조심 또 조심..
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I reckon we need to go way lower again to set market imbalance -> balance..
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스프링이라고 확인하였지만 지금 보여주는 것은... 조심
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Doesnt seem to sustainable.. will wait for entry or see if it reclain
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yeah.. still its a little short squeeze in action rather than SoS
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i am waiting one more day to see if it reclaim the creek, shows some strength. before that scaling in short in small position.
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현재의 TR 이 시작될때는 볼륨을 기반으로 재축적이라고 생각했지만 supply , absorption 을 고려할때 한번 더 low 를 테스트 할 것 이라고 생각합니다. 그리고 그 저점은 이전 저점보다 더 많은 유동성을 향해 갈 것이고 그 저점 도달시 빠른 속도로 반등할 것 (1-2일) 이라고 생각합니다.
급하게 포지션을 갖기보단, 34를 확실하게 reclaim 한 것을 확인하는 경우 (daily close) , 작은 풀백들에서 나누어 매수 포지션을 고려하는 것이 좋다고 생각하고.
저는 현재 조금의 스팟 롱과 이더 숏을 갖고 있습니다.
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ETH now
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BTC nov.2020
compare the volume, and you get an idea
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lots of ppl will start to buy eth on 1250ish.. good luck.. i see something brewing up
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closed short in profit.
elon musk tweet insta pump lol
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매매 수동청산
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insta pump and volume is quiet amazing. 차트로 보기보다는 최근 시장(미증시) 생각하면 한발자국 멀리서 짧은 거래만 하는것이 좋아보입니다.
@l3eautify, 저도 어제부터 서플라이 나오는 것이 하방이라고 보고있긴 했는데, 방금 나온 볼륨이 너무 크기도 하고, 추가적으로 테더가 계속 프린팅 되고 있어서. 일단은 사이드라인으로 빠져서 더 좋은 세팅을 기다리려고합니다 :)
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@MacroTradingE, 짧은프레임으로 보면 이번 상승때 나온 매수볼륨을 어느정도 해소한거같은데 큰폭의 상승은 없지않을까요 여기서
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@l3eautify, 어제부터 이상한 서플라이가 보인 곳은 bitfinex 였습니다, 근데 bitfinex 에서 그 트렌드를 깨버리는 demand 가 들어왔다는 것 자체가 지난 phase 들을 무효화 시킬 수 있는 경우가 될 수있어서, 확실치가 않네요. 전 남은 현물 판매에 집중하고 추가 상승이 더 나온다면 비트맥스에 있던 비트의 일정부분도 현금화 하려고 생각하고 있습니다. 지난 시진핑과 같은 경우가 될것인지, 이번 GME 사태의 경우가 될 것인지는 정말 확신이 서질 않아요 ㅎ
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@l3eautify, 로우 레버리지 헷징숏은 저도 여기서 40 정도까지 들어갈 계획입니다.
@l3eautify, 지금은 SoS 로 보여져요. Sign Of Strength (SOS): is an ACTION which shows that DEMAND is in control. The (SOS) should have GOOD DEMAND on the UP MOVE, a WIDE SPREAD and INCREASING VOLUME on the UPSIDE. Now let us deal briefly with the (SOS). The Sigh of Strength and the Crossing of the Creek are often two ways of looking at the SAME ACTION and the BACK UP to the edge of the CREEK very often is the (LPS) Last Point of Support. This (SOS) is usually is preceded by a T/R and a stock can continue in a T/R until it either has a (SOW) or a (SOS). The (SOS) shows that DEMAND is in CONTROL the Price & Volume characteristics are that it has WIDENING SPREAD and an INCREASE in VOLUME evidence of the good DEMAND. This is PROVEN and followed by the REACTION to the (LPS), that (LPS) should have a NARROWING of the SPREAD and a DECREASED of VOLUME compared to the (SOS) indicating the LACK of SUPPLY on the REACTION
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@l3eautify, 정확히는 이전에 계속 보고 있던 재축적 장에서의 JAC 이라고 볼 수 있습니다.
Cross or Jump the creek (JAC): either minor/major. To jump (rally) above the creek (drawn trendline) or flow of supply. This jump or crossing is a Sign Of Strength (SOS). Now where is the creek? After much searching for the answer to this question Mr. Evans finally reached the conclusion that the CREEK is WHERE the BOY JUMPED. Applying this to the market, the CREEK is WHERE the VOLUME CAME IN, where the EFFORT, the PUSH, the POWER came in.
It is important to recognize that there is no one exact way of drawing these creeks. Do some experimenting with them, you may wish to draw the creek lightly in pencil on your chart and continue the creek as long as it is useful, then later, either erase the creek, or a branch of the creek, or perhaps remove it from your chart altogether. However, leave the important creeks on your chart as they can be EXTREMELY HELPFUL in drawing your attention to the MEETING of supply in a T/R and in assisting in defining the probable extent of the reaction, that is the BACK UP, which is likely to occur after a possible crossing of the creek. It will be especially helpful in drawing your attention to situations where a stock falls back into the edge of the creek, because every so often it does that and every so often that little old boy scout sort of drowns. Our problem and very often is NOT to drown with him.