Rally is a bit overextended. Is it time for wave 4 and then an epic wave 5 in November? Note while I think wave 3 is already over, price could still make one more high say at the 1.618 and the count will still be valid.
Price action has chosen to explore the bottom half of the pitch fork on the daily chart, we could explore the top half : )
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Seems clear we are breaking down for wave 4:
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Tapped the .236 nicely, and buyers stepped in. Nice bounce, still think we are going lower. If we somehow make it past the 1.38 red extension than I'm definitely wrong : )
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Not a fan of 5 minute charts, but this was a clear rising wedge that just broke down...
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If 54xx doesn't hold still expecting new lows...
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Not much has changed, price still flirting with breaking this level, but indicators are suggesting the pull back is still coming. Still looking for the pull back to at least $5400, then we see if it holds.
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Looks like some big short liquidations on bitmex...
Watch this yellow trendline...its possible this may just go parabolic on us and wave 5 has already begun.
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*better trendline
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This doesn't feel like FOMO to me : ) At least for now.
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Now we have bear divs on the 4h as well:
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Sorry guys, just realize my fib levels accidentally got moved some how...I just fixed the chart. Only effects the "hard way" target.
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Looks like I was wrong : ) Trendline broken, previous high broken, volume coming in. FOMO coming in. Wave 5 is in progress.
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Look at this montly candle forming wow!
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Daily chart (similarities)
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$5700 holding so far..important support level
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Trend is up so I expect $5700 to hold, but if not here's what to look for:
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Also, while we did break below $5700 just now the big drop is not really confirmed until a daily candle closes below that level.
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Okay I think I figured this out. We are still in wave 4, its some type of a flat. Either it is completing now as we speak, or we are going much lower depending on the type of flat. I'm still bullish so expecting the first option. If this doesn't reverse soon then its the second. Good luck
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If we hold $5400 here I think there is a very good chance wave 4 is complete
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Since I have some time, some education, why I believe its wave B in a running flat (as opposed to wave 5):
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Feel confident we just finished a running flat correction.
Question is where we are overall. This is a slightly different count that fits with my new published chart. Sticking with this for now.
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Oh woops, i switched the colors, lets make it the same as I had:
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I think that's it for wave 4, time for wave 5:
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Yup looks like $6900 was the bottom, just making this slight adjustment to the count which makes more sense:
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Looks to me like wave 4 is in progress:
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I think that's it for wave 4 guys:
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Eh, bad call, sorry guys. It happens, but as far as the count goes, still totally valid as long as we dont go below 5k.
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Forget to update this one...from now on just follow this chart:
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haha this made it up to the target but tradingview cuts off that price action not cool : (
nice charting, let's see if its going to be hard or easy, hard would be the better trade ;)
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Okay, thank you for the update.
bysteven
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BTC looks like (not perfect) H&S to me with a 4500ish target, what do you think? Given your LTC/BTC ~0.08 target this will give us LTC in the range of 35-38. Healthy shakeout?
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@bysteven, I have my eye on that, and there is potential for that to come to fruition, but we would need to fail to make ATH's over the next week or so, and break back below the neckline. Given my wave count, and the monthly candle forming, i don't that's going to happen. But we'll see : )
El3m3
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I love how you frequently update your TA with charts to explain your rationale. Thank you! your opinion is one of a few that I value on TV.
exceLqa
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Any way it was good possible way, thank you for your analysys
ambrosia
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Seems like consolidation to me with a possible higher low. We just broke an ATH and not much of a % increase since then (compared to previous ATH breaks) so I'm expecting to go higher.
Cheers!