IMHO, it's more likely that BTC will breakdown, with basically a 1 in 3 chance it breaks up... even if it breaks up, I agree with Tone Vayes (only on TA) that it will just head into a Bull Trap around 5k before breaking down drastically.
This is still my long term outlook for Bitcoin:
We need the 200 EMA > 200 MA deathcross to finally cause Capitulation, so we can find the end of the bear market, and start side ways recovery... the longer price action drags out in this "over priced" area the longer the bear market will continue.