Bitcoin: Welcome Back To Reality. 32,500 Next Support.

2021년 1월 10일

The next support is 32,500. If you were not aware of or not willing to risk at least 5 to 10K points on trades anywhere near 40K, then welcome to reality. When the herd mentality gets to outrageous levels (as it has recently) it becomes a game of financial musical chairs. And you better know where your chair is when the music stops.

Technical Perspective Now:

Avoid the FIRST mistake the herd will make: buying into this pullback too early. When a frothy and speculative bull market rewards many as it has recently, it reinforces VERY bad habits. One of those habits is to buy into any low, OR a support identified on a smaller time frame which is highly unreliable. You may have done that on some recent brief pullbacks, and it worked out but when the broader retrace asserts itself you will get caught and most likely give back your random rewards. This is human nature and if you not aware of it, you will make the same mistakes over and over.

The first historical support is at 32,500. This means IF price gets there, we have our first criteria met for a new swing trade, LOCATION. From there, price will NEED to stabilize and produce a setup, followed by a confirmation BEFORE we take on any new risk for a SWING TRADE. If you do not know the difference between a swing and position trade, you should learn before risking real money.

For swing trades, we follow a set of rules that keep us OUT of situations like this. No one wants to hear about risk. I was called "pessimistic" recently, because I am overly cautious and will not buy market highs. Which do you prefer? Pessimistic or REALISTIC? I am not bearish on Bitcoin, short term or long term but I do have specific criteria that I follow when it comes to putting on specific types of trades.

Human Nature: We Can Capitalize On It.

Recently someone mentioned that his friends got angry with him for telling them not to buy into market highs. Traders or investors who rely on "instinct" and "logic" and filter irrelevant market information with these faulty biases (like news, "expert" opinions, and other If This Then That type of information) will find themselves at the mercy of the market. Especially in situations like what we are seeing right now in terms of price action.

We all started out this way. This is what you need to internalize in order to improve and capitalize on the herd mentality rather than be robbed by it: markets are HIGHLY random. There is NO way to consistently exit at the TOP or buy at the BOTTOM and markets do NOT go vertical for long. Situations like Bitcoin from December until now are RARE. Learn to think the opposite of everyone else. Be interested when a market is hated and reduce risk when markets are loved. In a random environment such as a financial market, the only thing that gives us an advantage is evaluating the repetitive nature of human behavior and charts can provide some insight into this.

Thank you for taking the time to read my perspective, I hope you found it helpful.