Turningmecard
쇼트

Do not dream of BTC bull run

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   비트코인 / 달러

I have been trading BTC             for over a year. This year, we are observing, experiencing the same old pattern of BTC             for so many times. From Feb,
short lived bull runs that last for only 2~3weeks, and dump has been happening. there are always same common factors in this pattern.

RSI Daily bear divergence(making double tops to confirm), breaking invalidating inverse or regular hs pattern , ascending triangles(bear flags),
short squeezes, always drop or at least make the top on early month time period...

right now, we have made the top at 8400/8500, and double top at 8370, but people still think it would moon to 9k, 10k. but, how?

Now, btc             dominance so high, alts making new lower lows in 2018, with such low volume , this game cannot be played by patterns at all.
we must confront the fact that the whales playing this market wants the price low, VERY LOW.

we should have broken higher than 8.5 when we had the chance, over 70 in daily RSI . RSI indicator is so tender, and its resistance is hard to
break or maintain. now after the dump from 8.2 to 7.4, RSI quickly lost track of maintaining the 70+ level, which is a signal of bullishness.
downtrend continuation will be boosted since daily rsi broke down. Patterns like the EW or harmonic and etc, cannot win over low volume .

lets see today's Bitcoin             chart. we can see how desperate the bulls wanted a reversal. they used 2 whole days to make a bull div             on low time frames. they finally did, and tried the reversal but only failed after a touch at 7700. since bull div             is invalid, the bulls need to make another
setup, which can happen in 7400/7500 level, but also below at 7200/7300. i shorted the market from 7700 today, still holding majority of
orders.


what we need to see is a daily bull divergence for a real bull run, which will take time. Bitcoin             will NEVER bounce with real conviction
just because it dipped to 7200, 6800, or even 6200. the chart, the players, investors need to setup the environment for the next run.
so price needs to come down, and RSI needs to make higher highs. of course not only RSI but, MACD/MFI/Stochastic RSI and many other
conditions need to match the next run. it will take at least 2~3weeks even more, BTC             will zigzag , go sideways, eventually alts will tumble down.

Since the ETF confirmation is delayed to September, bears have perfect chance to demolish, crumble, ruin the market ugly. what we need
to do is wait if you want to buy. but enter short if you can at 7600~7800 levels in coming days.

at the moment, 7500 is maintained as support, but it is only matter of time we dip lower. it might try another lower high(or higher high) at 7700 levels, in coming hours, but it is doubtful. we have good chance to see lower support zone tomorrow, at 7200/7300, and have a technical bounce of 200~300 dollars which will be a good short entry. mid term, btc             will test 6.8k.




코멘트: crucial moment for btc at 7300. expect a short bounce at 7280/7300 levels to 74 or even 75 but even it does it will be short lived.
코멘트: it made a bullish hammer candle in 1hr time frame, so we can expect a short bounce, but could come down to complete the div or fail.
코멘트: 71~73 long. I do not think it will breach 6k levels today, its too fast, not ready enough on lower time frames to push lower. more like it will bounce from 72 or 7180. it is worth the reward, since lower time frames are oversold, and 4hr would develop its rsi movements. price can come down low as 7150~80 today or 7200ish.
코멘트: my new thoughts on btc movement..
코멘트:
btc forming a falling wedge pattern. buy zone would be 7.2k area, low as 7180. this in EW patterns, target 9.2k but i doubt this at the moment. it can target far as 8k, where all the resistance lies, conservatively, 7.5~7.7k would be target.
코멘트:
Thanks for your opinion.. :)
That's not a good a very nice thing to say...
+1 응답
@Sanghoon09, yes, market needs strength and i think it will give a nice bounce..
응답
@Turningmecard , Thanks a ton. I am getting exhausted facing a gloomy market. I hope we have another bull market sooner or later. BTW, I was looking for a chance to sell out holing Altcoins when the price goes up little bit. What would be the next highest price level at the moment before it crashes to 6.8K? I hope it does not fall down to 6.8K w/out any adjustment.
Again, thanks for your excellent TA.
응답
@june0817, if btc holds 73 level today, it will try to form a reversal pattern targeting 7700+@, making lower lows or highs but keeping rsi higher. however, we can see volumes decline every time it breaches 7700~7800 level. just like the 7~7.7k price range in late may. so 77, 78 can be an 'ideal' price to shake out your coins, but this bounce can be short lived only to 7440/or 7480 at max, which turned into a resistance. this dump will not slow down until daily rsi goes under 30 or touches it.
+1 응답
june0817 Turningmecard
@Turningmecard, Thanks for your kind reply. So 7440 or 7480 is the max. level for the reversal pattern. Too bad that we are facing another down trend again.
응답
@june0817, yes try going long today, buying at low levels at your best. 7250, 7230 can be the lowest, maybe 7180. it will not bounce crazy until tomorrow at my guess, it needs to form a reversal pattern first today
+1 응답
june0817 Turningmecard
@Turningmecard, Thanks again! Please keep us updated if you can. Your followers are now visiting this site. Cheers!!!
응답
market looks shaky, and it visited 7300 crucial level. because the low time frames are oversold wecan expect a very short relief bounce upwards today, but we cannot under evaluate the bears because they have the knife. took 60% of my short profit at 7370/7340 from 7700
+2 응답
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