I have been trading BTC for over a year. This year, we are observing, experiencing the same old pattern of BTC for so many times. From Feb,
short lived bull runs that last for only 2~3weeks, and dump has been happening. there are always same common factors in this pattern.
Daily bear divergence(making double tops to confirm), breaking invalidating inverse or regular , ascending triangles(bear flags),
short squeezes, always drop or at least make the top on early month time period...
right now, we have made the top at 8400/8500, and at 8370, but people still think it would moon to 9k, 10k. but, how?
Now, btc dominance so high, alts making new lower lows in 2018, with such low , this game cannot be played by patterns at all.
we must confront the fact that the whales playing this market wants the price low, VERY LOW.
we should have broken higher than 8.5 when we had the chance, over 70 in daily . indicator is so tender, and its resistance is hard to
break or maintain. now after the dump from 8.2 to 7.4, quickly lost track of maintaining the 70+ level, which is a signal of bullishness.
downtrend continuation will be boosted since daily broke down. Patterns like the EW or and etc, cannot win over low .
lets see today's Bitcoin chart. we can see how desperate the bulls wanted a reversal. they used 2 whole days to make a bull div on low time frames. they finally did, and tried the reversal but only failed after a touch at 7700. since bull div is invalid, the bulls need to make another
setup, which can happen in 7400/7500 level, but also below at 7200/7300. i shorted the market from 7700 today, still holding majority of
what we need to see is a daily bull divergence for a real bull run, which will take time. Bitcoin will NEVER bounce with real conviction
just because it dipped to 7200, 6800, or even 6200. the chart, the players, investors need to setup the environment for the next run.
so price needs to come down, and needs to make higher highs. of course not only but, MACD/MFI/Stochastic and many other
conditions need to match the next run. it will take at least 2~3weeks even more, BTC will , go sideways, eventually alts will tumble down.
Since the confirmation is delayed to September, bears have perfect chance to demolish, crumble, ruin the market ugly. what we need
to do is wait if you want to buy. but enter short if you can at 7600~7800 levels in coming days.
at the moment, 7500 is maintained as support, but it is only matter of time we dip lower. it might try another lower high(or higher high) at 7700 levels, in coming hours, but it is doubtful. we have good chance to see lower tomorrow, at 7200/7300, and have a technical bounce of 200~300 dollars which will be a good short entry. mid term, btc will test 6.8k.
btc forming a falling wedge pattern. buy zone would be 7.2k area, low as 7180. this in EW patterns, target 9.2k but i doubt this at the moment. it can target far as 8k, where all the resistance lies, conservatively, 7.5~7.7k would be target.
Again, thanks for your excellent TA.