The Monkey and the Wise Owl

2022년 1월 23일

One night, the monkey was monkeying as usual, jumping up and down, left and right, holding his fingers straight out of his head as if they were horns of a fearless bull. The Owl watched carefully, one eye skeptical, the other sarcastic.
"What do you think you are doing?" said the wise owl.
"I am hedging with BTC against a market crash," said the monkey, who didn't need an adjective to have his character described.
"You are doing what?!" said the wise owl with half a chuckle, while still holding to its skeptical/sarcastic look. "Look deeper into my eyes and you shall see."
"Shall see what?" asked the monkey monkey eagerly.
"You shall see experience, you fool," replied the wise owl, "If you hedge volatility with more risk, especially if the correlation coefficient is almost 1 more than 80% of the time, and, even more, when the coefficient was low, it was because BTC was falling while the market didn't, then you must be insane."
"The past doesn't necessarily predict the future," echoed the monkey with one of those packaged sentences that he knows by heart.
"I will give you that," said the wise owl. "But then, why do you expect BTC to go up?"
"Because it always did in the past," replied the monkey confidently. "And even the market rises eventually after any crash," it felt the urge to add.
"Indeed," replied the wise owl so calmly, that kind of calmness which signals the lack of interest in further conversation. They waved goodbye.
Back to its precious solitude, the owl switched to is smartphone, navigated to the investment app, and opened a massive short position on the monkey's future, while using BTC as a hedge.