Continuation of my previous idea. This is VERY VERY simple.
A monkey should be able to understand this: Bitcoin get bull run go up alot very much ==> Bitcoin retrace. ALWAYS. Not only Bitcoin, any stock do this. Bitcoin retrace to 0.618 good retrace (retraced EXACTLY here actually). Below 0.786 oh oh maybe the bulls aren't strong anymore.
After Bitcoin retrace but not too much Bitcoin go up again.
Bitcoin gets bullish pennant on the daily chart after recovering from the noobs capitulation ==> Bull run is size of the flag pole ==> Target is 13k. NOT because of some deformed Head and shoulders.
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In the trade significantly with a 4.5 risk to reward. If we go to 9000-9300 I'll buy more lower my average buy price get a better risk to reward and make more profit if we go up. Asia week starts in 10 hours. It should start moving then. The week after new year...
Opinion: We won't get into the ultimate buy zone for a couple of hours.
If we lose 9000, the next buy would be 8600 which is the next fibo level, and also the target of the "natural" bear flag...
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If we ignore the "natural" candle, the bear flag would point directly in the ultimate buy zone. Yummy.
From Goldbug "I can not emphasize enough that in my opinion active trading corrective markets is risky and one should understand the risk and have tight and skilled money management in place. It is not about being right or wrong but managing your money to minimize losses." I listen to this guy, this is why I am being careful and only going in *10 leverage (jk I'm *20).
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This could happen: Would be nice.
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Ridiculous...
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And the newest 2H inside bar.
I can swear we are going to go below it fast, and then back up. I can guarentee it.
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:}
My order at 9251 still didn't get filled :'(
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4HR candle closed. Only 4 hours left till we start a new week. This is it...The wait is soon over...
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30 min inside bar again:
We had 4 green 1HR candles in a row, so some red is required
2 hours left till day closes.
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So much red...so much... Is it truly likely we keep getting red?
Trying to find something to get an edge... I think there's nothing left to find
The rsi seems to have broken the downtrend, it needs to get above 50 and stay there if we are to go up to higher than 11800 or whatever the previous high was.
Next week is going to be one of the most important weeks for Bitcoin...
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Woho too many green 1HR in a row calm down. I see 2 scenarios right now (in dots):
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Doesn't that look familiar
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Always keeping an eye on things because I have an addiction
My next buy was barely above the purple line, I screwed up I missed it :( But I'm already in pretty big it's fine :D
We had a huge bull run from 7800 to 11800 and now we could be getting 9200 to 13200. If we get to 13200 I'll short to 3 targets: 0.382 0.5 0.618 (11800 11300 10800) on Bitmex, trying to get as many Bitcoins as possible there :D I'm longing it for now on Bitmex (on top of my main crypto account), the higher it goes the more Bitcoin profit I generate while my Bitcoin itself gains value, double win, it is very satisfying :D Bitmex ++ but not for new people.
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A new era has begun!
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Someone mentionned a cup and handle in the comments. Good call. Careful it can be subjective. It looks quite beautiful here so we might want to keep an eye on it if we keep going up.
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Something will happen in a few hours at best. The longer we consolidate the more likely we go up next. Watch out for "natural" candles being the reflect of "the market sentiment" and not "1 fat greedy whale"
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Oh geez I hope he's not reading this. Hey man/wall street, if you're reading this I was kidding when I called you fat. Your idea of dropping the price so people see this triangle and we go up hard to 13k and then 16k was genius. You deserve to make these 50% and more. Good job.
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Whale is going to have to put big buy orders above 9075 if his evil plan is to succeed:
If we go below that price, it's going to look grim for the bulls, whale might go sell drive the price to the lows at that point go double bottom.
Also this is a good read:
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If we get in the green circle area don't be surprised if we see some giant sudden buying spikes.
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To be more precise:
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Going up again. It kinda looks more natural this time.
I dropped my phone in the water and it is broken, for now. This increases my risk on this trade (if I lose internet I have no 4G, if I step away from a computer I can't use my phone...) RIP be careful.
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On the 5 min chart, we can see the total Bitcoin spent to move it up this time is much lower, whether it's natural or a single entity that moved it, in both cases it's good.
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I think this is it, for real this time.
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Let's do this:
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Ok higher high set.
According to Marc Principato "The more conservative play is to wait for a decisive break and close above 10256 minor resistance level (.382 of current bearish swing)."
OH MY GAWD ITS GOING UP SO MUCH
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And buying at 9280+ or on a breakout is aggressive.
I even went for option 3 which I call the Full Insane Warrior method. Hey if I'm right 90% of the time and go for 4:1 RR and neevr go all in I am allowed to go full insane on trades.
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That was brutal. The price is now sitting on all these moving averages that all converged to the same spot. If we break all these goddam things, the downtrend is going to get ravaged. Get your helmets on, 10G is not laughing matter. youtube.com/watch?v=v-rBaT8Srpc (that's the only vid I can find with 10G)
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1HR Rsi fall in the green box next? maybe? So we can get ready for the next impulse.
Friendly reminder that it's best to buy on pullbacks when we break resistances not right away (unless you're a bot and buy the split second there's an order pushing it above or something).
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From AAlFadhala And you can be certain all that cash is ready to buy on the way to 13000.
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I am soon off to go buy a Samsung Galaxy Note 8 (need a new phone), Bitcoin better not crash now.
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We have many many positive signs these flags this mornign star, the RSI the volume the ema's, if we close today above 10300 everything will be very positive. And Europe hasn't been this sunny and hasn't had such a clear sky for months, really. December and January were the least sunny months we had for tens of years, it was very very bad, I forgot how the sun looked liked. And China new year just ended last week.
I don't think it's going to be super hard to get to 13000. The odds look good.
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Still consolidated
Zooming in we might have something...Not super convinced thought.
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I am convinced now
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Levels to keep an eye on.
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Speculation:
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More probable scenario, and also the "perfect" scenario:
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Boom! Closed the day above 10238 and we now got a magnificent morning star, oh beautiful star, shine, shine bright. Oh shine you will. I must admit thinking about it casually going to a store to buy a phone that costs someone's month salary like I buy a pack of gum feels good. I love volatility! (Not a call to get greedy and take too big risks) I love crypto!
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"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen. Muahahahahaha" - Palpatine
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Still following the plan. As long as we stay above the line or at least 0.618 it's all good. I won't add to my positions I'm already in big time.
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Everything is (still) going according to my evil plan...
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Zooming in, has to consolidate or go up now.
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The suspense could last HOURS. Better not have any heart issues...
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It's allright if we retrace a bit we went up so sharply we need to, but I'm afraid we start freefalling fast and I don't have time to react while I'm away from the PC... Crypto is brutal. We rested enough Mr Bitcoin, go back up now please so I can leave my PC.
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Ready to go back up...
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Pure speculation on my part, for fun:
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Close enough. I might be wrong but I think people got scammed again.. Less than 2 hours before the day closes. Let's do this.
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DANGER DANGER DANGER
The 11600 target (size of the flagpole got reached), now whether we go to 13k or not is 50/50. Could bounce on 10500 could go up from now could not. Too much manipulation in the 9280 - 11788 area (weekly inside bar). Until we leave that area nothing is certain (close to certain). I'm shorting now and looking at every level. If we get close to the low of the inside bar I'll long (insane RR), if we go below I'll close my longs at 1% loss and go short.
@cryptogast33, On the red ones the volume bars really looked like someone was pulling their middle finger on me. Felt that way too.
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@MrRenev, Hahaha yeah I saw that :-) You noticed the 23k dump from one guy 5 feb? There were orders > 3k a piece being thrown in 20 seconds that day, it was amazing :-)
I think you need to start a new TA.
It is hard to scroll all the way down.
Thank for your effort anyway.