* 이 글은 매도와 매수를 위한 분석글이 아닙니다. 맨 아래 보너스 희망회로가 있습니다. * This article is not for sale or buy. There is a bonus idea at the bottom. (* I am poor at English so I hope that you will understand me.)
1. 선물 만기 패턴 분석(CB0E, CME) : Analysis of Futures Expiration Pattern(CB0E, CME) 지금까지 하락장에서는 CB0E 만기일 보다 CME 만기일의 종가가 낮았고, 상승장에서는 CB0E 만기일 보다 CME 만기일의 종가가 높았습니다. 이러한 패턴이 유지된다는 가정 하에 현재 7월은 상승장의 시작이며 19일 CB0E만기일에 종가를 높였고 오는 28일 CME 만기일은 종가를 더 높일 것으로 예상됩니다. CME 선물 만기일(7월 27일 오전 1시)이 가까워진 만큼 가격이 한차례 더 올라 갈 가능성도 열어두어야겠습니다. < 한국 시간 기준 / UTC+9 > * CB0E : 1.18(07), 2.15(07), 3.15(07), 4.19(07), 5.17(07), 6.14(07), 7.19(07), 8.16(07) * CME : 1.27(01), 2.24(01), 3.31(01), 4.28(01), 5.26(01), 6.30(01), 7.28(01), 9.01(01)
Until now, the closing price of the CME expiration date was lower than that of CB0E in the bearish market, and the closing price of the CME expiration date was higher than that of CB0E in the bullish market. Assuming this pattern is maintained, July is on the bullish market, CB0E put up the closing price on the 18th, and CME on the 27th is expected to raised the closing price. As CME futures expiration date (4 pm on July 27) is approaching, we should open up possibility that price will be raised once more. < London Time / UTC > * CB0E : 1.17(22), 2.14(22), 3.14(22), 4.18(22), 5.16(22), 6.13(22), 7.18(22), 8.15(22) * CME : 1.26(16), 2.23(16), 3.30(16), 4.27(16), 5.25(16), 6.29(16), 7.27(16), 8.31(16)
2. 50일 하락장 패턴 : The 50-day-drop pattern 50일 하락장 패턴은 1시간봉 기준으로 최고점에서 다음 상승장을 알리는 양봉이 있기 하루 전까지를 나타냅니다. 6월 25일 오전 1시에 5월 5일 이후 가장 큰 1시간봉 양봉(대략 9%)이 나왔습니다. 12월, 2월 50일간의 하락장 다음 날 장대 양봉을 시작으로 상승장이 열렸듯이, 6월 25일 오전 1시 양봉도 50일간의 하락장을 마치고 상승장을 알리는 좋은 신호라고 생각됩니다. < 한국 시간 기준 / UTC+9 > * 17. 12. 17. (09:00) ~ 18. 02. 05. (09:00) : 50 days * 18. 02. 20. (09:00) ~ 18. 04. 11. (09:00) : 50 days * 18. 05. 06. (00:00) ~ 18. 06. 25. (00:00) : 50 days * 18. 07. 28. (09:00) ~ 18. 09. 16. (09:00) : ??? days
The 50-day-drop pattern represents(on an hour basis) : From the peak to the day before a long candle announcing the bullish market. On June 24, at 3 PM, the largest candle since May 4 has come out (about 9%). As the bull began with the long candle the next day after the 50-day-drop in December and February, I think the candle at 3 pm on June 24th is a good signal to announce the Bullish market after completion of the 50-day-drop. < London Time / UTC > * 17. 12. 16. (00:00) ~ 18. 02. 04. (00:00) : 50 days * 18. 02. 19. (00:00) ~ 18. 04. 10. (00:00) : 50 days * 18. 05. 05. (15:00) ~ 18. 06. 24. (15:00) : 50 days * 18. 07. 27. (00:00) ~ 18. 09. 15. (00:00) : ??? days
3. 결론 : Conclusion CME 선물 만기일(7월 28일)과 50일 하락장이 시작되는 날짜(7월 28일)가 일치합니다. CB0E 만기일(7월 19일)에 종가를 높였기 때문에 CME 만기일(7월 28일)에 종가를 더 높일 것으로 기대할 수 있으며, 50일 하락장이 시작되는 날짜는 하락장 기간 중 가장 높은 가격대를 형성하므로, 이번 7월 28일은 CB0E 만기일(7월 19일)의 종가(7400$) 보다 가격이 더 오를 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. < 한국 시간 기준 / UTC+9 >
The CME futures expiration date(July 27) and the date(July 27) starting the 50-day-drop pattern match up. As the closing price on the CB0E date(July 18) has risen, the closing price on CME date(July 27) can be expected to rise higher than CB0E. Since the date on which the 50-day-drop starts is the highest price during the drop period, this July 27 is expected to be more expensive than the closing price ($ 7,400) on the CB0E date (July 18). < London Time / UTC >
*** There is no big change yet. I will update the idea later. This comment is for many people asking for the expiration date of the Futures(exactly last trade date), so I updated those for this year.
1) CME(On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm / UTC) : 09.01(16:00) / 09.29(16:00) / 10.27(16:00) / 12.01(16:00) / 12.29(16:00)
2) CBOE(On Third Wednesday of each month at 10 pm / UTC) : 09.12(10:00) / 10.17(10:00) / 11.14(10:00) / 12.12(10:00)
코멘트
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*** 정정(Correction) 1) CME(On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm / UTC) : 08.31(16:00) / 09.28(16:00) / 10.26(16:00) / 11.30(16:00) / 12.28(16:00)
best observation ever. perspective of market makers in contrary to thousands of crypto phenomenons who have no idea of what is going on. great intelligence
table001
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The pattern fits reality. Very nice observation.
If you are right we continue to go down until 15th September.
If we continue directly down until 15th of September at the present course we will go too low I think.
The waves are getting smaller, so personally I think on 15th of August we will touch new bottom 5400-5800,
and we have just enough time for a small wave up and down until 15th of September or until 31st of August.
SEC verdict coming on 21/09 so until then the price is certainly going back up.
19th of September CBOE expiration and 21st of September SEC verdict, how appropriate of them.
Because of this I think we start going up at the expiration hour on 31st of August.
We may see a bull run fever until 21st of September.
Be aware, the verdict on 21st can also be negative.
Let me know your thoughts about the coming month or so.
Would be very nice if you could update your chart if you find the time for it.
Appreciate your thoughts and work. Thanks.
pkb6698
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*** 아직 큰 변화가 없습니다. 아이디어는 차후에 업데이트 하겠습니다.
많은 분들이 선물 만기일을 문의하셔서 금년도까지의 CME, CBOE 만기일을 올립니다.
1) CME(매월 마지막 토요일 01시 / UTC+9) : 9.01(01:00) / 9.29(01:00) / 10.27(01:00) / 12.01(01:00) / 12.29(01:00)
2) CBOE(매월 셋째 주 목요일 07시 / UTC+9) : 9.13(07:00) / 10.18(07:00) / 11.15(07:00) / 12.13(07:00)
*** There is no big change yet. I will update the idea later.
This comment is for many people asking for the expiration date of the Futures(exactly last trade date), so I updated those for this year.
1) CME(On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm / UTC) : 09.01(16:00) / 09.29(16:00) / 10.27(16:00) / 12.01(16:00) / 12.29(16:00)
2) CBOE(On Third Wednesday of each month at 10 pm / UTC) : 09.12(10:00) / 10.17(10:00) / 11.14(10:00) / 12.12(10:00)
philoyul97
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우왕~ 성지순례 다녀가용~
drumi_Fixed
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크으 성지순례 다녀갑니다
UnknownUnicorn3321986
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과연 이번에 50일 패턴은 깨지는지...시어머니 만기가 코앞인데 남은 기간동안 어떻게 흘러갈지 흥미롭게 지켜볼 수 있는 부분이네요..ㅋㅋ