Looks like we're near the top of an Ascending Wedge (purple).
We're also at a trendline formed from the last couple tops and matches a few points further back (purple line).
So I'm speculating that a drop is imminent (although this is bitcoin so who knows - my last prediction looked pretty solid and didn't pan out lol).
Assuming it does drop, I have a couple ideas for where it might end up - see chart for details.
If this doesn't end up being and Ascending Wedge and keeps going up, I'm thinking it might be a Bullish Wolfe Wave (will post another idea about this)
코멘트
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Here's a downward breakout scenario - there's currently a Head & Shoulders forming on the 5 min chart, and it's right at the edge of the bottom of the wedge. If it breaks down, the target would be low enough to be considered a breakout from the Ascending Wedge. We'll know shortly! (the orange lines following the H&S are just baseless speculation)
코멘트
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Closer screenshot (the other one was a little unclear)
코멘트
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There we go! H&S broke downwards, which broke us downwards out of the Ascending Triangle - let's see if the breakout holds. I'm short until we reach the red trendline, or until it looks like a reversal.
코멘트
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Another possibility is that is will turn out to be more of a channel than a wedge, which would give greater credence to the Bullish Wolfe Wave theory.
Not sure yet, let's see how it recovers from the H&S breakout.
코멘트
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Another update in the comments - not sure which way it's going to go because when I checked out Bitstamp, there's a clear channel and we haven't broken out of it yet. On the other hand, on Bitfinex, we've broken out even when drawn as a channel, and we may be forming another Head & Shoulders.
One thing is clear though, if we break above about $1070 again, it's looking very bullish because of this Inverse Head & Shoulders:
What's your take now? It seems to be holding at 1030 again.
biggullycoin
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@Steve_Wellingsworth, Still watching - after looking at the Bitstamp chart, I'm not so sure that was a breakout of an Ascending Wedge, I think it could go either way. I'll show you what I mean:
This is Bitfinex - I've updated the lines to show a channel instead of a wedge to be conservative.
So as you can see even when it's drawn as a channel, we've still broken out of it, and there's still the possibility that we're forming another Head & Shoulders.
But Bitstamp is a different story:
The chart on Bitstamp definitely looks more like a channel than a wedge, and we haven't even broken out of it yet.
So I don't think it's clear which way it's going yet.
Continuing upwards would be VERY bullish, because if we hit around $1070 again, we'll have an INVERSE Head & Shoulders. That would support my other theory that we may be forming a Wolfe Wave.
Steve_Wellingsworth
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@biggullycoin, Have you revised your theory yet? It's beginning to look pretty bullish, wouldn't you think? What exactly does a Wolfe wave imply? I'm having a terrible time telling wether to buy in or short the market. What would a pro do, split the difference in fiat and coin?
biggullycoin
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@Steve_Wellingsworth, We're RIGHT at the turning point. This could be the top of the right shoulder, or it could be the start of the next leg up. No way to tell really but I'm watching very closely. We should know for sure in the next few hours.
In simple terms, if it goes up another $10 or so with some volume, it probably invalidates the Head & Shoulders idea and it's more likely to go up.
If it starts curving down again and gets past 1013 or so, that should be pretty strong confirmation of a Head & Shoulders and it'll probably go down into the mid 900's.
If you're dying to get in right now, maybe put half in now and half when an upward breakout is confirmed.
If you want to play it really safe, I would wait for a breakout above $1070 - if that happens I can see us getting into the $1300's again over the next week or 2. Or if it breaks below 1013ish wait for signs of a reversal in the low/mid $900's.
But take everything with a grain of salt, nobody can predict news coming out / sentiment changing. And I'm not exactly a pro either :)
BTW this is what I mean by a Bullish Wolfe Wave:
UnknownUnicorn897809
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Looks like it's heading back up, not sure
biggullycoin
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@ZABTC, IDK, it's back down to the neckline of the H&S on the 5 min - we should know pretty soon. I'm not trading yet until it's clear, if it doesn't break downward out of the wedge my other theory is very bullish (Wolfe Wave)
biggullycoin
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@biggullycoin, Yup looks like it's breaking downwards currently
UnknownUnicorn897809
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@biggullycoin, Yep, good call there. Luckily I shorted at $1060 earlier