MacroTradingE

이번 사이클의 마지막 상승 그리고 다음 사이클의 바닥

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   비트코인 / 달러
12081 뷰

기록
코멘트: 80-85% correction from the top
코멘트:
코멘트: this could be the reason we had passive sells to build a liquidity for next cycle bottom.
코멘트: Market retraced with panic sell with Media cover (Elon musk)
Weak hands sold spot btc while CO gives pressure on derivatives market.
Demand purely built by market participants.
코멘트: Note

if CO sold spots for distribution it was not the bottom but very unlikely.
i would like to believe this range as local bottom. likely "39k (ugly wick down) - 41k" will hold and resume next rally.
코멘트:
코멘트: note

more volume toward support = good = supply absorption
more volume toward resistance = bad = proof of supply on sale
코멘트: note

shorts are offside here as time goes by.
what if spoofing below 40k then shoot up to 50-52k range
then pull back to 46-48k range again for shake out?
코멘트:
would like to see strong close on daily today to confirm a "spring"
코멘트: also to make sure, we always need a liquidation event before bounce up.
keep it mind "ugly wick" down.
코멘트: this is getting ridiculous, there is no big liquidation, only new long position loading on market. doesn't look good.
코멘트:
daily strong close should be above 43k
코멘트: 저는 모든 포지션을 청산하고 숏 헷징에 들어갑니다.
안좋은 데이터가 나왔네요.
매매 수동청산
코멘트:
just sayin..
we had 75% pullback on first bull market.. just sayin...
so im more focused to protect my capital rather going long without many conviction.
코멘트:
what if?
코멘트: margin bounce... i do no trust.. capitulation on progress..
코멘트:
코멘트: some massive demand on coinbase.
will long on next dip.
코멘트: im laddering my buy orders 19k - 23k
no kidding ;)
코멘트:
코멘트:
코멘트: There is still not enough balance on volume/delta for buyers. Its a traders bounce, drawing bullish chart. CO will dump on this longs soonish..
코멘트:
코멘트:
market is not dead.. lots of fud news about USDT,CHINA and more..
remember it always coming out when market is going down.
its just a pullback to grab more liquidity to rise higher in near future.
protect your capital, do not fomo.

there is no real demand that meet supply yet.
코멘트: derivatives pushing price up with some fomo thru media (twitter).
local bottom is pretty close, but not yet.
wait spot start to push price.
i bet around 25-27k ish prob.

liquidity hund at first sell off,
now market will test the real demand of market soon.
코멘트:
코멘트: market meeting mean reversion. green week coming.
거래청산: 타겟 닿음: im closing my short here.
코멘트: Other bad data just came in.. im not closing my short here.. 24k is in sight
코멘트: derivatives bounce. we will head lower soon, prob 37max for today.
코멘트: another liquidity setup.. be careful my friends.
코멘트:
거래청산: 타겟 닿음: Exit liquidity on ETH.. dont really like this
Cvd spot futs divergence.
코멘트:
strength is back. will long on next pull back
코멘트:
buy zone, if we do not get bad delta
코멘트: hate to sayin it, it does looks like retest of ice
코멘트:
코멘트:
if you want to build a position, this box gives u entry or stop.
코멘트: closed short here 35.2
accumulating here to 33k
코멘트: i got all my long orders filled.
42k next
코멘트:
코멘트: reduced half of position, market need bit more time.
코멘트: accumulating
코멘트: i bought everything i wanted. and market is ready to bounce up hard.
코멘트:
closing margin long here. holding spots.
코멘트:
코멘트: short covering rally.
코멘트:
still there is no evidence of real demand,
lots of margin longs opening.

thinking last capitulation still intact.
코멘트: drop, buy the dip, shoot up on wknd.
코멘트: nothing changed, no real demand in market (spot).
only margin longers, eating fundings , trapping more longers.
CO will take this whole liquidtiy to build new demand.
my long scaled 31-33k , thought wknd pump, but seems most likely wknd dump and scoop up for shoot up next week.
코멘트: weird market balance. cancer my long orders.
will re evaluate when i see btd.
코멘트: lots of engineering on liquidity. not sayin it will happen, but im stick in to hedge short rather than catching a bottom for long.
코멘트: 25k- 32k big liquidity pool.
코멘트: note : there will be an opportunity if y don't caught on counter market.
코멘트:
코멘트:
코멘트:
HTF fib
코멘트:
코멘트:
코멘트: expected "liquidation" event . but seems CO started buyin on this range.
prob one more sweep low 30k then go time?
코멘트: Volume expands, Spread widen, Weak closes = LPSY
코멘트: out of all position , hedged short
코멘트:

what if
코멘트: note

Remember history repeats.. us gov baned gold. Rich people hoarded and didnt sell, the poor complied.. Few years later it was legal again and gold rocked up.
Will btc be the next gold ban?
코멘트: first time we got volume on spot,
binance.

still seems its exit liquidity. not ape in.
코멘트: no one will acknowledge that we are in a short term bear market until the bear market is over then the bull market starts and they will say we are still in a bear.
코멘트: stonks , DXY , bonds all going up = nature need a heal
코멘트: note

bear market doesn't mean only down down down.
its about "accumulation" or "distribution" in any timeframe.
코멘트:
코멘트:
re distribution example
코멘트:
코멘트: again, im not tryin to be bear or hero.
i don't need a friend, but i like someone who can share thoughts to improve both.

Trading is a process of verifying facts through indicators studied in history and accumulated logic
코멘트:
ltf distribution on going but its being absorbed in tight range.
코멘트:
if there is a demand that can cover supply, it could bounce again and meet another supply above.
코멘트: 34 - 32
naked poc
with alot of vol
코멘트:
no rush here.. i don't see signs of reversal.
liquidity hunting it seems. it gets even worse on this pump while retails jump in for reliefe rally.

one good thing we have 9 on weekly.

코멘트:
not seeing much effort on this pump.
코멘트: Bulls best hope to break 45k.
I only see liquidity engineering here on last pump.
I'm on sideline, enjoying 1-2 weeks vacation away from trading. Hedged towards downside
매매 수동청산
코멘트:
거래청산: 타겟 닿음
코멘트: note

Vix hits highest since May 21st.
last up 2.58 points at 20.33.

hold your breath.
코멘트:
while btc making..
nq,qqq all look like shit.
코멘트: been negative gamma for a while
lots of inflows
distributive volume / candle.

im short hedged. coming back in july.
코멘트:
액티브 트레이드: bought some gold and dollor.
코멘트: some nice buy delta coming in, prob local bottom is closer than expected.

코멘트: under 29k is lots of liquidity , so if panic triggers, 24-26k is on table.
i assume 24k will hold and bounce back to 30keks
코멘트: 29k supported, closed hedge short, will see pullback for longs.
코멘트:
will add some longs on those pullbacks
코멘트:
daily shows we are still below ICE. so best place to open long position would be pullback after break POC
코멘트:
no reclaim 35k end of daily, this will bring more sell pressure, follow red path.
코멘트:
im longing next dip.
코멘트:
we got some demand data coming in, liquidity is building on upward.
코멘트: Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
코멘트:
코멘트: Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
코멘트:
코멘트:
코멘트:
코멘트: note : don't get trapped on exit liquidty.
코멘트:
bearish arguments

-going up on margin and air.
-too many longs that would be easy to kill going down
-massive seller side data is still there
-No buy side data is coming in


bullish arguments

-first buy side data was showed on 30-32k on may 19th.
-+@ buy side data is gone, don't know how it used.
코멘트: note :

i am not biased, i just follow what i see.

will take a loss and closing my hedge if i see new buy data
or we clear break up to 41k.
코멘트: 1. Invest with confidence and focus.
2. Stop loss is not due to price changes, but when the hypothesis is wrong.
3. Look at the ocean, not the wave.
4. Control your emotions.
코멘트:
no demand data backed, another re distribution(3)
코멘트: A series of climactic declines indicate that stopping action is taking place. The downtrend channel has been extended. Note what a long-drawn-out decline this has become. This is a markdown of major proportions. Volume and price spread bulge during the final stages of the drop as conditions become climactic. This is a classic opportunity for short sellers to cover and close out their positions. The rally from the SCLX to the BCLX is about a 100% run-up. We must expect that many institutions and individuals are in a loss trap, having bought in the vicinity of the all-time high prices. Therefore, prices may retest the SCLX low and potentially go lower as these late buyers finally capitulate and sell.

A buying climax (BCLX) throws over the rising trend channel on high volume. Thereafter the declines are rapid and the rallies are labored (narrow spread and low volume). This Redistribution (#4) has the classic attributes of a normal distribution. The two LPSYs are ‘on the springboard’ and represent good places to sell short. A rapid decline to new lows follows.

Each of these Redistributions is unique. By studying these classic case studies we can accelerate our learning curve. And, most importantly, they can keep us on the right track and out of trouble.
코멘트:
코멘트:
bullish argument

marketcap is holding support while avg trading volume is comparable to last nov.


thought

smart money is exiting on alt, shows only volume spike happens on crash without incline trading volume on total market cap.
when alt meets resistance, that would flow in to btc and do the next thing.
코멘트:
Alt = ETH for me.
코멘트: RE note :

i am not biased, i just follow what i see.

will take a loss and closing my hedge if i see new buy data
or we clear break up to 41k.
코멘트:
코멘트:
monthly
코멘트: one asked

: there is bull div on daily. why you keep saying we going down ? die you shorter.

: indicators following price action, no more than that. find all the div in past and see if that all worked out.

ps - i am not a short as short. its a hedge based on trend i see, i have invalidation. "margin degenarate gambler"
코멘트:
코멘트:
seems 36k was very important point to figure things reverse.
rack of demand data , rack of buying action on spot exchanges.
mostly it all pointing we have another swipe to lower.
chop chop range, but trend seems not reversed.
코멘트:
too early to say where o/s trend forming.
but this could be supply line.
액티브 트레이드: stoploss set on hedge short at 37k,
weird liquidity engineering.
no data backed, but position building on derivatives seems looking for a squeeze.
코멘트:
y can call it black swan, some call it liquidity recovery.
i am not calling its same situation, but all asset market will need to take a liquidity back from the greed, set it back on healthy liquidity, not an offside.
액티브 트레이드:
코멘트: not sure if it can top over 40k with scam pump,
but all i see on data and volume is distribution.
we would need to see market buy back what they sold before another bull cycle.
코멘트:
코멘트:
if we bounce on here towards supply line, count start from 1hour oversold.
which means we can confirm distribution when it hits supply
코멘트: note

mark down usually start with some panic buying.
nuke on late buyers.
코멘트:
entry for the swing trade could confirms on few different approach, volume analysis based on wyckoff is one of it.
액티브 트레이드
코멘트:
price rejected on supply line,
but hard to say that was panic buying.
코멘트:
if that was a initial reject on supply, another weakness will follow.
코멘트: equal highs at 35k

34.2k 100x short liquidity
코멘트:
took the liquidity, supply popped on 34k ish.
코멘트: there is still possibility it can sustain to 35k equal high, but direction bias haven't changed. no demand on spot, derivatives push.
코멘트:
new mp area, where could pingpong before next pullback.
코멘트:
not much changed, respecting supply line , oversold line for now.
expecting gap down soonish.

note

there is always 5:5 buyer,seller.

whoever calling there is too many short in the market so it will sqeeze doesn't make sense. there is liquidity on both side for sure, but doesn't mean it has to clear out before every move but some. more important to follow up is the trend where CO and people lean on to heaviliy bid or ask on.
매매 수동청산: closed dxy n gold
코멘트:
코멘트:
There was no price lift off the support, then we had a gap down and out of the trading range. mark down is around corner.
코멘트: reducing hedge, spot seems back. relief?
코멘트: note:

b world narrative + ftx (bluffing) pushed market, oi all been reset as before pump after hit today high. now, will we see new demand kick in? or keep distributing like recent. we will soon find out, and if it grind down again, won't be same as past.

it must be kept in mind that bull and bear markets only occur and are maintained when they are justified by the law of supply and demand. Technicians could not possibly cause a major market move just by the sheer power of their buying and selling. if this were the case, technicians would all become wealthy very quickly.
코멘트:
코멘트: more exposure on hedge, showing same data like june 15-16th.
코멘트:
picasso thing