AUDJPY analysis. Which scenario do you think will play out?

Australian Dollar/Japanese YenFXCM

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⋅ 2019년 12월 4일 오전 3시 49분

I have 2 possible scenarios which in my opinion r likely to happen. what do you guys think?
all feedback is appreciated as im a new trader and im posting my thoughts to hopefully get constructive feedback so I can improve :)